The many unpredictable events of 2024 could easily have been disastrous for investment markets. Instead, we saw remarkable resilience and growth despite occasional volatility as investors reacted to the extraordinary times.

While economic growth in Australia and overseas was underwhelming, share markets rode out the ups and downs to finish 2024 strongly. 2024 was the ‘super election year’, when almost 2.5 billion people in 70 countries voted. One result that has captured the attention of governments and analysts around the world is Donald Trump’s return to office in the United States. He has promised massive tariffs, tax cuts and increased spending on defence. All measures are likely to increase inflation and budget deficits which will affect global markets and economies.

Continuing geopolitical upheaval also marked the year. Tension in the Middle East grew as Israel expanded its campaign and European Union economies came under increased pressure when Ukraine stopped the flow of Russian gas.

The US dollar ended the year on a two-year high but that, and a weakening Chinese Yuan, led to a two-year low for the Australian dollar, which ended the year just below 62 US cents.

Cost of living falls but interest rates steady

Around the world, interest rates fell during the year but in Australia, after five interest rate increases in 2023, the Reserve Bank (RBA) held steady at 4.35%, believing inflation is still too high.

Nonetheless, the cost of living has fallen significantly, down to 2.8% in the September quarter from a high of 7.8% two years ago and 3.8% in the June quarter.

Falls in electricity and petrol prices contributed to the easing.

Australia’s economy grew by 0.8% in the three quarters to the end of September – it’s slowest in decades.

House prices mixed across the country

The housing market appeared to cool by the end of the year with average national home values falling by 0.1% in December to a median of $815,000.

CoreLogic’s Home Value Index data shows four of the eight capitals recording a decline in values between July and December. These included Melbourne, Sydney, Hobart and Canberra. While in Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin, home values increased.

Share markets survive and prosper

Global share markets were unsinkable in a year of stormy economic and political conditions.

The Nasdaq surged more than 30 per cent for the year. The S&P 500 was up 25% – pushed along by the ‘magnificent seven’ tech stocks – and the Dow rose 14%.

Although not quite in the same league, the ASX performed strongly, recording 24 new record highs during 2024. The S&P/ASX 200 closed the year at 8159, up 7.5%, with some analysts predicting 2025 will close around 8800.

Commodities

Gold came into its own as a safe haven for those concerned about events around the globe, reaching an all-time high in October and adding more than 28% for the year.

Oil prices were subdued with investors cautious about a glut, the risks of wider conflict in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine and the change of government in the US. Although there is some optimism for improved growth in China in 2025.

Iron ore prices have continued to decline, now down to about half of the peak US$200 a tonne in 2021.

Looking ahead

Economists’ forecasts vary on the timing of a cut in interest rates in 2025 but some believe there will be as many as four cuts, reducing the rate to 3.35% by year end.

Share price volatility is expected to continue as investors roll with the global political and economic punches and the upcoming Australian Federal Election is likely to introduce uncertainty until the results are in.

If you’d like to review your goals for the coming year in the light of recent and expected developments, don’t hesitate to get in touch.

Note: all share market figures are live prices as at 31 December 2023 and 2024 sourced from: https://tradingeconomics.com/stocks.

There is no debate that Australians love investing in property. The value of Australian residential real estate at the end of August 2024 was an estimated $10.95 trillion.

Some love it so much that they believe property is a better option for providing a retirement income. They see a bricks and mortar investment as a more tangible and solid approach than say, superannuation, preferring to take their super as a lump sum on retirement to buy property. They may also choose to invest a windfall, such as an inheritance, or the proceeds from downsizing the family home, in property instead of their super.

So, given that a retired couple above age 65 needs an estimated yearly income $73,337 to lead a comfortable lifestyle, could a property investment do the job?

While it’s true that a sizeable property portfolio could deliver rental income to equal a super pension, it might mean missing out on some useful benefits.

After all, super is a retirement savings structure with significant tax advantages. It also has the flexibility to provide investments in a range of different asset classes, including property.

Meanwhile, super fund performance has, generally speaking, outstripped house price movements over the past decade. Super funds (invested in an all-growth category) returned an annual average of 9.1% during that time while average house prices in Australian capital cities grew 6.5% per year over the same period.

Not that past performance can give you any guarantees about what will happen in the future. Indeed, the average numbers smooth out the years of high returns and the years of negative returns. More important considerations in making an informed decision are your financial goals, your investment timeframe and how much risk you’re comfortable with.

Liquidity

One of the most significant differences between super and property investments is liquidity, or how quickly you can convert your investment to cash.

With super, assuming you’re eligible, funds can be accessed relatively easily and quickly. On the other hand, if your wealth is tied up in property it may take some time to sell or it may sell at a lower price.

Nonetheless, market cycles affect both property and super investments. They can be affected by volatile conditions and deliver negative returns just at the time you need access to a lump sum.

Long-term investing

Superannuation is designed for long-term growth, often spanning decades as you accumulate wealth over your working life. The magic of compounding interest can lead to substantial growth over time, depending on your investment options and the state of the market.

Property investments, on the other hand, can be invested for short, medium, and long-term growth depending on the suburb, the street, and the type of house you invest in. Of course, there are additional costs in buying a property (such as stamp duty) plus costs in selling (including capital gains tax). If there’s a mortgage over the property, you’ll need to factor in the additional costs of repayments and interest (bearing in mind that interest on investment properties is tax deductible).

Risk appetite

Investors’ attitudes towards risk also play a role in choosing between super and property.

Superannuation funds can be diversified across various asset classes, which helps to reduce risk. But property investments expose investors to a single market meaning that while there might be a big benefit from an upswing, any downturn may be a blow to a portfolio.

Making an informed choice

Ultimately, any decision between superannuation and property should align with individual financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment strategies. And, of course, it doesn’t need to be one or the other – many choose to rely on their super while also holding investment property so it’s best to understand how super and property can complement each other in a well-rounded retirement plan.

We’d be happy to help you analyse your retirement income strategy to develop a plan that works for you.

Australian share prices have seen record highs in 2024 after a sluggish couple of years.

The S&P ASX200 index added just under 7% in the 10 months to October 31 closing at 8160. It reached its previous all-time high of 8355 just two weeks before.

So, if you were invested in an index fund or a basket of shares mirroring the ASX200 for the entire period, it’s likely you would have added some value to your portfolio.

Over the course of the year, the index has ebbed and flowed, recording several all-time highs and some jarring notes in response to global events.

Geopolitical tensions have also played a part in market skittishness as the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine continue and economists argue about the future impact on Australia of a Trump presidency.

US share prices surged the day after Donald Trump’s election in what many saw as a positive reaction to the returning President’s policies. Since then, prices have declined in a not-unexpected correction. Various analysts are predicting future volatility as markets respond to the proposed policies including tariffs and mass deportations promised by the President-elect.

These ups and downs in prices can have investors scurrying to hit the ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ buttons. They may be desperate to save further losses when share prices are falling rapidly or wanting to cash in on a rising market. Meanwhile, those with lump sums to invest may delay, trying to pick the time when prices are lowest.

Timing the market

It’s a strategy – known as timing the market – that may work for some, particularly if you need access to your investment in the short term. But, for mid- to long-term investors, it’s generally accepted to be problematic.

To begin with, predicting the next market movement is extremely difficult – even for experienced investors – because of the endless factors that can influence the markets.

Reacting to major market movements by selling or keeping a lump sum in cash until ‘the time is right’ means you run the risk of missing the market’s best days and reducing your overall return.

Countless studies show that better long-term results are achieved by consistent investing over time.

In Australia, $10,000 invested in the ASX/S&P 200 during the 20 years to October 2024 would have increased to $60,777. But, if you had missed the 10 best days during that time, your total investment would be just $36,014.

Dollar cost averaging

One way of removing the emotion and guesswork is to consider investing at regular intervals over time, ignoring any market signals, in a strategy known as ‘dollar cost averaging’.

The strategy works best if you are investing over the medium to long term because it helps to smooth out the price peaks and troughs.

In fact, compulsory superannuation paid by employers is a form of dollar cost averaging. Smaller, regular amounts are invested automatically, regardless of market movements and, over time, the investment grows.

However, the jury is out on whether dollar cost averaging is a useful strategy when you have a lump sum in cash to invest.

Some advocates of dollar cost averaging argue that there’s a better return because you reduce the risk of making a large investment just before markets plunge.

Those opposed to the strategy for lump sum investing say that, with a lump sum sitting in a bank account as you chip away at regular stock purchases, there is a risk that you will miss the best of the market.

A 2023 study found that investing a lump sum in the markets at once over the long term delivers a better return than a dollar cost averaging strategy.

So, avoid the risks of timing the market and consider whether dollar cost averaging might be an appropriate strategy for you.

We’d be happy to discuss how best to ensure your regular investing strategy or investment of a lump sum, takes account of future market movements and volatility.

At this time of year, when giving is particularly on our minds, some might turn their attention to how best share their wealth or an unexpected windfall with their loved ones­.

You might be thinking about handing over a lump sum to help them with a major purchase or business opportunity, or be keen to help reduce or extinguish their student loans. Alternatively, it might be about helping to solve a housing problem.

Whatever the reason there are some rules that it is worth being aware of to ensure both you and they are protected.

Giving a cash gift

You can give anyone, family or not, a gift of cash for any amount and, as long as you don’t materially benefit from the gift or expect anything in return, no tax is paid on the amount by either you of the receiver.

The same applies if you’re planning to pay out your child’s student loans.

However, be aware that if the beneficiary of your cash gift is receiving a government benefit, such as an unemployment benefit or a student allowance, there is a limit on the size of the gift they can receive without it affecting their payments.

They may receive up to $10,000 in one financial year or $30,000 over five financial years (which can not include more than $10,000 in one financial year).

Helping out with housing

Many parents also like to help their children get into the property market, where possible.

It’s been a difficult time for many in the past few years in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, the rising cost of living and interest rates, and a housing crisis.

A Productivity Commission report released this year found that while most people born between 1976 and 1982 earn more than their parents did at a similar age, income growth is slower for those after 1990.

With money tight and house prices climbing, three in five renters don’t believe they will ever own a home even though most (78%) want to be homeowners, according data collected by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI).

Just over half of those surveyed (52%) were renting because they didn’t have enough for a home deposit and 42% said they couldn’t afford to buy anything appropriate, the AHURI survey found.

So, in this climate, help from parents to buy a home isn’t just a nice-to-have it’s becoming a necessity for many.

Moving home

Allowing your adult child, perhaps with a partner and family, to share the family home rent-free is common option, giving them the chance to save up for a deposit.

One Australian survey found that one-in-10 people had moved back in with their parents either to save money or because they could no longer afford to rent.

If it gets too much living under the same roof, building a granny flat in your backyard may be an option.  Of course there are council regulations to consider, permits to be obtained and the cost of building or buying a kit but on the upside, it may add value to your home.

Becoming a guarantor

Another way to help might be to become a guarantor on your child’s mortgage. This might be the best way into a mortgage for many but before you sign, think it through carefully, understand the loan contract and know the risks.

Don’t forget that, as guarantor, you’re responsible for the debt. You will have to step in and repay if the lender can’t afford to repay, and the loan will be listed as a default on your own credit report.

Any sign that you are being pressured to be a guarantor on a loan may be a sign of financial abuse. There are a number of avenues for advice and support if you’re concerned.

It’s vital that you obtain independent legal advice before signing any loan documents.

If you would like more information about how to provide meaningful financial support to your children, we’d be happy to help.

Recently, negative gearing has been making waves in the news and with rental affordability becoming a serious issue in Australia, various political parties have weighed in. 

While some argue that it’s a vital tool for encouraging investment in housing and fixing the housing crisis, others believe it fuels property price increases, contributing to housing affordability issues and making home ownership increasingly difficult for first-time buyers.

However, there are concerns that any reforms to this widely used tax concession might reduce the supply of homes for renters by making housing investment less attractive.

And while there are certainly arguments for and against tinkering with this tax law, a further consideration that is contributing to debate, is the increase in gearing claims over the last few years.

Some $8.7 billion in negative gearing claims were made in the 2020/21 financial year, according to the latest Treasury analysis, and this is anticipated to soar due to the change from record low interest rates to a climate of higher rates in record time.

Despite increases in rents, rental payments are still lagging behind loan repayments on properties that may have been bought at recent high prices, so the number of investment property owners who are negatively geared has increased.

To understand what all this means, it’s helpful to look at what negative gearing is and how it works.

What is negative gearing?

Negative gearing is an investment and tax minimisation strategy, primarily associated with property, where the costs of owning an investment property exceed the income it generates. This might sound like a strange way to invest, but it can be quite beneficial when you know how to play the game.

In simple terms, if you’re losing money on your property each year, that loss can be used to reduce your overall taxable income. For example, if you’re paying more in mortgage repayments, maintenance, and other expenses than you’re earning in rent, you can declare that loss on your tax return. This can lead to a smaller tax bill, which is appealing for many investors.

How does it work?

Let’s break it down with a quick example. Imagine you’ve bought an investment property for $600,000. Your annual expenses, which may include mortgage repayments, repairs, insurance, and property management fees, total around $40,000. If you’re only earning $30,000 from rent, you’re facing a loss of $10,000.

By declaring that $10,000 loss on your tax return, you can reduce your overall taxable income. If your regular job pays you, say, $80,000 a year, you can effectively lower this amount by $10,000, which means you’ll pay less tax overall.

The potential upside

So, why would anyone want to invest in a property that’s losing money even if it means you get a bit of a tax break? The key here is capital growth. While you may be negatively geared in the short term, many investors bank on the property appreciating over time.

Let’s say over time that property you bought for $600,000 rises in value to $800,000. When you eventually sell it, you could make a tidy profit, far exceeding the losses you incurred along the way. Historically, property in Australia has appreciated in value over the long term, making it a popular investment choice.

Risks and challenges

While there are some certain benefits associated with negative gearing, investing in property isn’t without its challenges.

Property investment requires a substantial initial outlay, not to mention the ongoing costs such as maintenance, rates, and insurance. Investors considering this type of arrangement need to have the financial stability to fund the shortfall out of pocket until the property becomes positively geared (meaning your investment property rental return is higher than your repayments and other costs) or is sold.

Plus, the property market can be unpredictable. Prices can fluctuate based on a multitude of factors, including economic conditions, interest rates, and even local demand.

It’s worth noting that some proposed changes could affect the way negative gearing works, so staying informed is crucial for existing or potential property investors.

If investing in property is something you are interested in exploring, we are here to help you qualify for an investment loan that’s competitive.

Planning for what happens when you pass away or become incapacitated is an important way of protecting those you care about, saving them from dealing with a financial and administrative mess when they’re grieving.

Your Will gives you a say in how you want your possessions and investments to be distributed. Importantly, you should also establish enduring powers of attorney and guardianship as well as a medical treatment decision maker and/or advance care directive in case you are unable to handle your own affairs towards the end of your life.

At the heart of your estate planning is a valid and up-to-date Will that has been signed by two witnesses. Just one witness may mean your Will is invalid.

You must nominate an executor who carries out your wishes. This can be a family member, a friend, a solicitor or the state trustee or guardian.

Keep in mind that an executor’s role can be a laborious one particularly if the Will is contested, so that might affect who you choose.

Around 50% of Wills are now contested in Australia and some three-quarters of contested Wills result in a settlement.

The role of the executor also includes locating the Will, organising the funeral, providing death notifications to relevant parties and applying for probate.

Intestate issues

Writing a Will can be a difficult task for many. It is estimated that around 60% of Australians do not have a valid Will.

While that’s understandable – it’s very easy to put off thinking about your own demise, and some don’t believe they have enough assets to warrant writing a Will – not having one can be very problematic.

If you don’t have a valid Will, then you are deemed to have died intestate, and the proceeds of your life will be distributed according to a statutory order which varies slightly between states.

The standard distribution format for the proceeds of an estate is firstly to the surviving spouse. If, however, you have children from an earlier marriage, then the proceeds may be split with the children.

Is probate necessary?

Assuming there is a valid Will in place, then in certain circumstances probate needs to be granted by the Supreme Court. Probate rules differ from state to state although, generally, if there are assets solely in the name of the deceased that amount to more than $50,000, then probate is often necessary.

Probate is a court order that confirms the Will is valid and that the executors mentioned in the Will have the right to administer the estate.

When it comes to the family home, if it’s owned as ‘joint tenants’ between spouses then on death your share automatically transfers to your surviving spouse. It does not form part of the estate.

However, if the house is only in your name or owned as ‘tenants in common’, then probate may need to be granted. This is a process which generally takes about four weeks.

Unless you have specific reasons for choosing tenants in common for ownership, it may be worth investigating a switch to joint tenants to avoid any issues with probate.

Having a probate is favourable if there is a refund on an accommodation bond from an aged care facility.

Rights of beneficiaries

Bear in mind that beneficiaries of Wills have certain rights. These include the right to be informed of the Will when they are a beneficiary. They can also expect to hear about any potential delays.

You are also entitled to contest or challenge the Will and to know if other parties have contested the Will.

If you want to have a final say in how your estate is dealt with, then give us a call.